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Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.